Timing is Everything

Ignore the fact that the projected insolvency dates for Social Security and Medicare were pushed back a year yesterday. That's the lead of most news stories today, but it's actually not the most important thing in the annual trustees report. When you look at the size and scope of the "fiscal tsunami" awaiting us, an extra year is nothing to cheer about.

What's much more interesting is that the Medicare trustees issued an official "funding warning," which triggers a timetable requiring President Bush to submit legislation on the problem within 15 days of submitting his budget request . That means sometime in February 2008. Congress is also required to consider the legislation "on an expedited basis."

This doesn't guarantee that anything will get done. Given that the legislation would probably be submitted shortly after the "Super Duper Tuesday" presidential primaries, it seems unlikely that anyone in Washington will be in the mood to make tough (and unpopular) decisions about Medicare. But this does guarantee the issue's going to be on the table in the midst of the presidential campaign. Maybe, just maybe, we could have a real debate over the entitlement crisis this primary season. Let's hope so, anyway.